Every brand manager knows the feeling. It's early November, and the pressure's mounting. Your competitors are teasing their Black Friday deals, the sales team is getting anxious, and that discount button starts looking mighty tempting.
But here's what separates brands that thrive from those that merely survive Q4. The winners know exactly when to hold their price and when to play. They're not watching the calendar. They're watching something else entirely.
Picture this scene from last November. A Melbourne-based fashion retailer, let's call them a "premium denim brand," panicked when their competitor announced 40% off everything. Within hours, they matched the discount. By December, they'd moved record units but made less profit than the previous November when they'd run a modest 15% sale.
Meanwhile, their smaller competitor held firm at 20% off, sold fewer units, but ended Q4 with healthier margins and stronger brand perception. What did they know that the panic discounters didn't?
They understood that Black Friday success in Australia isn't about following American retail calendars or matching competitor discounts. It's about reading the signals your brand is already sending you.
This year, Australian retailers are expected to discount by an average of 35% to 40% during Black Friday week. Yet research consistently shows that brands with strong equity can maintain their margins while still hitting revenue targets. The difference lies in knowing which signals to watch and, crucially, what those signals are telling you about your brand's true position in the market.
The fundamental mistake happens long before November. Brands treat Black Friday as an event rather than an outcome. They mark it on the calendar like Christmas or Easter, assuming participation is mandatory. But Black Friday isn't a holiday. It's a strategic choice.
Think about your own shopping behaviour for a moment. When you search for running shoes, do you type "running shoes" or "Nike runners"? That tiny difference, multiplied across thousands of customers, reveals whether a brand has earned the right to hold its price.
The most successful brands during Australia's Black Friday period aren't necessarily those with the deepest discounts. They're the ones who know precisely how much discounting they need, if any at all. This knowledge doesn't come from gut feeling or competitive pressure. It comes from reading five critical signals that most brands completely overlook.
When customers search for your brand specifically, rather than your category generally, you've already won half the battle. This "branded search share" acts like a demand thermometer, telling you exactly how hot your brand is running.
The magic threshold sits at 5 to 10 points above your baseline. If your branded searches in October were capturing 20% of category searches, you want to see 25% to 30% by early November. This uptick indicates customers aren't just shopping the category. They're shopping for you.
Google Trends makes this check remarkably simple. Compare searches for your brand plus category terms against the category terms alone. A sustainable furniture brand might compare "Koala sofa" against "buy sofa online." If that branded combination is climbing steadily through October, you have pricing power most competitors lack.
But here's where it gets interesting. When branded searches aren't climbing by late October, no amount of discounting will create genuine demand. You'll simply be subsidising purchases that would have happened anyway, just at a lower margin.
Market share tells you what happened. Consideration rate tells you what's about to happen.
Imagine your brand holds 15% market share in your category. Logic suggests roughly 15% of category buyers should be considering you for their next purchase. But what if only 10% are actually considering you? That 5-point gap represents a fundamental brand problem that discounting will only paper over temporarily.
The target is elegantly simple. Your consideration rate should at least match your market share. Ideally, it exceeds it, suggesting share growth ahead. When consideration falls below 75% of your market share, you're facing brand decay that Black Friday discounts will accelerate, not solve.
Smart brands check this through multiple lenses. Recent survey data provides the cleanest read, but social listening for purchase intent mentions works too. Even a quick LinkedIn poll to your target audience can reveal whether you're truly in the consideration set or just hoping to buy your way in.
Professor Jenni Romaniuk from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute revolutionised how we think about brand growth with her work on Category Entry Points (CEPs). These are the specific moments and motivations when customers think about buying from your category.
A premium chocolate brand might own "special dinner party gift" and "apologising to partner" but completely miss "afternoon treat at work." The more entry points you own with strong recall, the less dependent you become on price promotion.
The winning threshold? Own at least two to three moments with better than 30% recall. This means when customers think "I need a gift for my teenager" or "time to treat myself" or "must replace that broken item," your brand surfaces naturally in their mind.
Testing this doesn't require expensive research. Ask ten customers this simple question: "When would you think of buying something from our category?" Listen carefully to the situations they describe. Then ask which brands come to mind for each situation. If your brand doesn't surface naturally for at least two distinct moments, you're vulnerable to price competition from brands that do.
Every customer carries two scores in their head about your brand. One for quality, one for price. When quality perception exceeds price perception, you have what strategists call "premium permission." Customers believe they're getting more than they're paying for, even at full price.
The formula is beautifully straightforward. Quality perception should exceed price perception, creating a net positive score. This gap represents your discounting buffer. The wider the gap, the less you need to discount.
Customer reviews provide an unfiltered window into this perception. Count mentions of "worth it," "good value," and "happy to pay" against "expensive," "overpriced," and "wait for sales." When more than 30% of mentions focus on price over benefits, your premium permission has eroded.
A Sydney-based skincare brand discovered this signal saved them from a costly mistake. Their reviews showed overwhelming quality perception, with customers calling products "transformative" and "worth every cent." They held firm at 15% off while competitors slashed 40%. Result? Record Black Friday revenue and protected brand equity.
Show someone a curved red ribbon on white background for half a second. They'll say Coca-Cola. That instant recognition represents millions in advertising value and, more importantly for Black Friday, the ability to cut through promotional noise without shouting louder via deeper discounts.
Your distinctive brand assets, whether colours, logos, packaging shapes, or sonic cues, should achieve at least 70% instant recognition. This means seven in ten people identify your brand within two seconds of seeing your assets, even partially obscured.
The test couldn't be simpler. Crop your logo to show just a corner. Display your brand colours without text. Show your packaging shape in silhouette. If people outside your industry can't identify you instantly, your distinctive assets aren't working hard enough.
Strong recognition means every Black Friday touchpoint works harder. Your email stands out in crowded inboxes. Your social ads stop thumbs scrolling. Your packaging gets spotted across the room. This visibility reduces your dependence on discount depth to grab attention.
With ten days until Black Friday, panic might seem justified. But strategic clarity beats frantic activity every time. Here's exactly what to do with whatever time remains.
Days ten through seven become your diagnostic phase. Check your branded search trends first. If they're weak, invest remaining budget in branded search ads rather than deeper discounts. You'll capture existing demand more efficiently than trying to create new demand through price cuts.
If consideration lags behind market share, create urgency content about why customers should buy your product, not just announcements about your discount. Tell the story of your quality, your difference, your value. Give customers permission to want your brand, not just your price.
Days six through four require tactical adjustments based on your diagnostic findings. When you own fewer than two category entry points, frame any discounts around the moments you do own. A luggage brand that owns "business travel" but not "family holidays" should create Black Friday offers specifically for professional travellers.
If price perception exceeds quality perception, avoid the trap of cutting prices further. Instead, bundle value additions like extended warranties, free accessories, or exclusive access. You're solving a value equation, not a price problem.
When asset recognition falls below threshold, ensure every Black Friday touchpoint deploys your strongest distinctive asset consistently. This isn't the time for creative experiments. It's time to leverage what recognition you have.
Days three through one focus on execution based on signal strength. Strong signals across the board? Hold your price longer, potentially discounting only in the final hours if needed. Mixed signals suggest selective discounting on gateway products that introduce new customers to your brand. Weak signals mean protecting margins by limiting both discount depth and duration.
Black Friday success in Australia isn't about importing American retail traditions or matching competitor desperation. It's about reading the signals your brand sends and responding strategically rather than reflexively.
Brands monitoring these five signals make informed decisions. Everyone else just follows the calendar, hoping volume will compensate for vanishing margins. The brutal truth remains. If you're reading this in November without historical signal data, you're already playing catch-up. But identifying even two or three signals in the next 48 hours puts you ahead of competitors discounting blind.
The most successful brands won't necessarily offer the deepest discounts. They'll offer the right discounts, at the right time, for the right reasons. They'll protect their margins and their brand equity while others race to the bottom.
Because Black Friday isn't a strategy. It's what happens when you don't have one.
Ready to discover which signals your brand is actually sending? Book a free 15-minute Brand Signal Review. We'll assess your two most critical brand health indicators and reveal exactly where you're leaving money on the table.